Florida/Michigan: How would a recount affect the race?

Almost 294,000 voters (Source) are up for grabs in Florida and around 263,000 in Michigan if there is a re-vote.

That is not counting a surely increased voter turnout with actual candidate campaigning in the states and the increased interest in the race.

Florida:
Senator Bill Nelson wants a recount and have the DNC pay for it , but the DNC can't afford to help pay for the cost of the process. Right now, the cost is estimated at around 22 million dollars. Personally, the DNC and the FDP are trying to work out a solution and Nelson should keep his 'train wrecks' to himself.

Florida is trying to figure out how to hold a new primary and how to keep the cost down. More importantly, how to engage the largest number of Floridians. I say Nelson should put his millions where his mouth is to ensure broad-based democracy in a re-vote.

Hilary won 55% and Barack received 30% of the primary vote in January. Now, theoretically, if Obama could win all of the now unpledged voters, he would narrowly beat Clinton. This is not counting the heavy campaigning efforts, increased voter turnout or swing voters.

Florida will not be easy to predict if there is another primary. On the other hand if, for some reason, the FDP decides to go with a caucus I think Hilary would win.

Let's hope that we include the wider populace and not just party activists.

Michigan:
Well, Michigan has apparently had a plan all along (according to some)--to hold a caucus. But, there is still a lot of wrangling still to come.

I will not even try to predict what will happen here. Obama was not on the ballot originally. They seem to be Clinton leaning. But, with Obama's new lead and strong campaign....anything is possible.

To top it all off Clinton wants the delegates to be seated for both states. Obama seems to be opposed stating, " “I think that we have played by whatever rules the DNC has put forward . . . and we will continue to play by those rules,” he said. “And whatever the rules are, we think we’ll do well.”

Finally, a REAL fight between the two!

More Links:
Let's Do Nothing
The Zimbabwe Guardian - interesting at least.
Irish Inependent

Size Does Matter

IT'S OFFICIAL: WITH 5 DAYS TO GO, MORE DEMS HAVE VOTED IN FLORIDA THAN IN EACH OF THE EARLY CONTESTS IN IA, NH & NV

Despite five active Presidential campaigns, GOP turnout remains unremarkable

TALLAHASSEE - With Election Day still five days away, thousands more Democrats have cast their votes in the Florida Presidential Primary than in each of the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada. Additionally, early turnout among Democrats is already triple what it was in the 2004 Florida Presidential Primary.

An incredible 295,932 Florida Democrats have voted so far (125,126 absentee and 170,806 early through 1/23/08), and this does not include more than 100,000 Democratic absentee ballots that have yet to be returned. By Tuesday, overall early turnout could quadruple 2004's numbers in which only 97,741 Democrats voted early or absentee.

"The enthusiasm among Democrats is palpable," Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen L. Thurman said. "Despite all the fuss over delegates, Democrats are going to the polls and making their voices heard in this open election. The votes will be counted, and the nation is going to be watching on Tuesday night to find out who Florida Democrats want as their nominee."

As the final early state primary before the potentially decisive Feb. 5th contests in 24 states, Florida could have an enormous impact on both the Democratic and Republican races. This early excitement in spite of the primary controversy bodes extremely well for the November general election.

Another good sign for November: Democratic absentee voting is proportionally higher than in any recent election, and more Democrats than Republicans have voted early. Republicans have traditionally held a large advantage with absentee voters, however, Democrats have significantly cut into their lead in 2008.

Moreover, Democratic absentee requests have climbed to more than 75% of their totals in the 2006 general election while Republicans have only reached 60% of their 2006 total - a marked decline that could illustrate low interest in their primary.

The total Democratic votes cast in the Iowa caucuses have been estimated at 239,000. In New Hampshire, almost 288,000 people voted in the open Democratic primary. In Nevada, 120,000 caucused for Democrats.

In Florida's 2004 Presidential Primary, according to the Secretary of State, 93,909 Democrats voted absentee and 3,832 voted early (it was not until the 2004 general election that early voting was standardized statewide.) for a total of 97,741 votes cast prior to the actual day of the primary.

A sampling of recent news stories on Democratic enthusiasm in Florida:

Jerusalem Post: Dems Skip Florida, But Jewish Voters Still Engaged
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1201070769786&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter

WESH 2 News Orlando: Dems Say They Will Vote in Fla. Primary
http://www.wesh.com/politics/15123813/detail.html

USA Today: Florida Democrats Eager to Vote Despite Candidates' Boycott
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-16-florida_N.htm

The Atlantic: Absentee Explosion in Florida
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/florida_primary_turnout_as_of.php

Associated Press: Early Voting Crucial To Campaigns Needing Boost From Fla. Primary
http://www.wftv.com/elections/15102140/detail.html

St. Pete Times: Early Vote May Be Decisive in Florida
http://www.sptimes.com/2008/01/25/State/Early_vote_may_be_dec.shtml

Miami Herald: Democrats Campaigning - On Paper
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/v-print/story/392916.html

Skip Campbell to run, and take out Sen. Atwater

For Immediate Release: January 16, 2008
Contact: John Reid, 850.591.4320


NEWS FROM THE FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC PARTY Photo Credit

SKIP CAMPBELL ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR FLORIDA SENATE DISTRICT 25

Former South Florida Senator Vows to Change the Direction of Florida and Take on the Status Quo on Behalf of all Floridians

FORT LAUDERDALE - Floridians long dismayed over the inability of state government to tackle escalating property insurance rates, skyrocketing gas prices, and high dollar contracts to special interests may soon regain one of their strongest allies in Tallahassee.

Skip Campbell on Wednesday announced his candidacy for Florida Senate District 25. The tireless champion for consumers' rights and children's interests said he intended to reestablish a voice for the majority of Floridians who have become disillusioned by the status quo.

"When elected, I will take on the pay-to-play culture that corrupts our state politics and provide a voice for the people of Florida who feel too often neglected by their government," said Campbell.

The Ft. Lauderdale Democrat, who previously served for a decade in the Legislature, was known for his maverick opposition to the insurance industry's attempts to overrun state regulators for higher rates, his struggle to suspend the state's gas tax to ease the high fuel price Floridians faced at the pump, and his lone battle to locate state contracts worth millions of dollars sent offshore to places such as India. Campbell also made history when, along with another Democratic lawmaker, he sued the state Department of Education to force the agency to reveal the inadequate skills of temporary workers grading the controversial FCAT exam.

"Since leaving the Senate, I have watched the Republican-dominated Florida Legislature continue to move in the wrong direction. Something needs to be done," said Campbell. "The go-along-to-get-along policies have brought our state to the edge of a financial cliff that threatens to topple the quality of life Floridians expect in the Sunshine State and their ability to pay for it.

"We need a fighter in the Tallahassee ring. Not another special interest ringer."

First elected in 1996, Skip Campbell's advocacy for the little guy extended to more than just Tallahassee. An attorney, Campbell successfully took on some of the most powerful corporations, such as State Farm, DuPont, Roche, and Allstate.

Raised in a deeply religious blue-collar family, Campbell learned firsthand the value of hard work and determination. Married to his wife Lynn for 37 years, one of his fondest memories is the financially strapped couple's first Christmas together. Asked what she wanted for Christmas, Campbell's wife simply replied, "A pot roast."

In the community, Skip Campbell is a past chairman of the local National Multiple Sclerosis Society, board member for Kids in Distress, and member of the Legal Advocates Committee of the Miami Project to Cure Paralysis.

The 25th District of the Florida Senate is currently represented by Republican Jeff Atwater, who is slated to be the next Senate President if he manages to survive his reelection bid. Atwater is most known for his close ties to big business groups, particularly insurance companies who have contributed over $250,000 to his campaigns and political action committees. Campbell, a Democrat, will officially file papers this week to challenge Atwater in the November 2008 election.


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Political notes from Tallahassee Democrat = All about local Democrats!

In today's Tallahassee Democrat, all of the Sunday political notes are about our local Democratic Party efforts! Announcing our Leon County YD local election results, DEC member Alan Williams candidacy, and promoting the Susan Franks fundraiser being planned by Leon County DEC members! Great job!

http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007706170321

Article published Jun 17, 2007

Young Democrats elect president
The Leon County Young Democrats elected former Florida Democratic Party Political Director Chris Petley as the group's new president for 2007-2008. The Young Democrats also elected other new officers in hopes of taking the organization in a new direction.

New officers are vice president Barbara Henderson, treasurer Alan Brock and secretary Corinne Rubin. The Executive Board members will each serve one-year terms. Board members will advise and organize more than 100 members of the LCYD as they prepare for the 2008 presidential election cycle.- Jeff Burlew

Mayor's aide runs for House seat
Alan Williams, the aide to Tallahassee Mayor John Marks, is running for the House of Representatives District 8 seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Curtis Richardson, D-Tallahassee, because of term limits.

He said in a fundraising letter to fellow Florida A&M University alumni that he and his family are excited about the run. He grew up on Tallahassee's south side.

"I am a product of Leon County Schools, having attended Hartsfield Elementary, Fairview Middle and Rickards High schools," he said. "I am a proud graduate of Florida A&M University, where I received my bachelor's of science and master's degrees in business. I am currently serving my second term as president of the Leon County Chapter of the FAMU Alumni Association, giving back to an institution that has given so much to this family."
He has served as Marks' aide for four years.

Franks fundraiser planned

A fundraiser for Suzan Franks, Democratic candidate for the District 3 state Senate seat, is set for 7 p.m. Monday at the home of Nora & Mark Herron, 503 South Ride. To make a reservation, send an e-mail to yogichi@gmail.com or call 425-5063.

Deadline quickly approaching!!!

News regarding the upcoming state conference, if you would like to be an elected delegate you must have your paperwork in by August 31, 2005. There are no special qualifications for Young Dems or College Dems, our only privilege is a reduced registration fee.

Here is what the state party website says regarding the election of delegates and the convention:

The 2005 State Conference is being held at Disney's Contemporary Resort in Orlando on December 9, 10 and 11, 2005. We expect this to be the largest State Conference in Florida history. More than 3,000 delegates from across the Sunshine State will be in attendance.

Elected Delegates: Any Democrat interested in becoming an elected delegate, contact your local DEC. Elected delegate qualifying is July 1 August 31, 2005. Qualifying forms can be obtained from County Chairs, Vice Chairs, State Committeemen and State Committeewomen. Contact your local DEC regarding timeliness, registration fees and qualifying forms.

You can also be an appointed delegate. Here is what the party website says regarding appointments:

Appointed Delegates: All Democratic Chairs; Vice Chairs; State Committeemen and State Committeewomen of the local DECs DNSNC Members; Caucus Presidents; President, Democratic Women's Club; President, Florida Young Democrats; President, College Democrats; Florida U.S. Senator and U.S. Representatives; State Senators; State Representatives can appoint delegates to the State Conference. October 15, 2005 is the deadline for appointments.

Each DEC officer can appoint 10 democrats from their county. I don't know the number that the caucus chairs and DNC member and state legislator can appoint, I will try to report that next week, if that number is 10 also we should have no problem getting anyone who wants to be a delegate in to a delegate spot. We have two DNC Members in Tallahassee Commissioner Allan Katz and Jon Ausman, several elected legislators (Sen. Lawson, Rep. Ausley, Rep. Curtis) and others that we can reach out to around the state, please let and LCYD officer know if you are interested in being a delegate to the convention, and please, if you would like to be an elected delegate, please file your paperwork on time.

Check the comments of this post over the next week for more information.